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Researcher
They sold MSTR again
Strategy raised capital and expanded its USD Reserve from $1.4B to $2.55B. So where did the money come from?
Yep. As expected, it was another MSTR ATM issuance. From June 22 to June 28, Strategy sold 12,669,017 shares of MSTR common stock through its ATM program and raised $1.1524B. The average selling price was around $91 per share.
Recently, MSTR’s mNAV has been hovering around 1.00, far below the breakeven mNAV level of 1.20 to 1.30. In other words, Strategy sold MSTR through the ATM at this mNAV level, bought zero BTC with the proceeds, and used the money to build up the USD Reserve. That means the BPS dilution is massive. BPS, which was once 220,400 sats, is now at 211,157 sats, down 4.2% from the high.
With this USD Reserve expansion, Strategy can now cover interest and dividends in cash for a whopping 17.4 months. That should give STRC holders a pretty meaningful sense of stability.
Here’s Why I Stopped Short MSTR
Over the past month, I’ve been strongly criticizing Strategy for raising capital through MSTR ATM issuance while mNAV was low. At first glance, today’s capital raise and USD Reserve expansion might look like good news, but in reality, it deserves serious criticism because it sacrifices MSTR investors for the benefit of STRC.
But Strategy made five major announcements today:
- USD Reserve policy: The use of the reserve is restricted only to interest and dividend payments. Any other use requires Board approval. The company also plans to maintain a USD Reserve equal to at least 12 months of interest and dividend payments.
- STRC dividend policy change: The regular dividend rate was increased to 12.00% per year.
- Digital Credit Capital framework: The company approved a program to repurchase up to $1B of preferred stock.
- MSTR common stock repurchase program: The company also approved a program to repurchase up to $1B of MSTR common stock.
- BTC Monetization program: The company approved a program that allows it to sell some BTC when needed to build up the USD Reserve and fund preferred stock or common stock repurchases.
The key point here is that Strategy can now freely sell BTC within the approved limits and use the proceeds to buy back MSTR and STRC.
Strategy had already hinted during its Q1 2026 earnings call that it could sell BTC, and about a month ago it actually sold 32 BTC, which shocked the market.
Now that the situation has become more difficult, Strategy is basically announcing a shift away from blindly accumulating BTC no matter what. Instead, it is moving toward an active capital framework where it can flexibly sell BTC depending on the situation in order to improve the company’s long-term sustainability.
I have been arguing that Strategy needs some level of deleveraging for the overall BTC and digital asset market. But even recently, Strategy kept pushing ahead by selling MSTR and buying BTC, even if that meant diluting BPS.
Strategy sold MSTR again today, but my view on it is different this time. On top of the five announcements above, Strategy also said it will avoid issuing common stock when MSTR trades near mNAV = 1.00. Of course, this is not legally binding, but Strategy is now acknowledging its past mistakes for the sake of sustainability and promising to become a company that can respond flexibly depending on the situation.
After the announcement, STRC, which had been trading around $75, rose about 8% to around $80. MSTR also rose about 8% and recovered to around $89.
One concern is how the market will interpret Strategy selling BTC. Strategy clearly said as early as its Q1 2026 earnings call that it could sell BTC, but the market overreacted heavily to the 32 BTC sale. Through today’s announcement, Strategy once again communicated that it can sell BTC through the “BTC Monetization Program.” But if Strategy sells BTC in the future, investors who do not understand the background may still overreact.
Over the past month, I published more than 10 tweets and reports sharing a negative view on MSTR and STRC. If the direction Strategy announced today continues for a long time, and unless BTC drops significantly, I probably won’t be writing negative posts about MSTR and STRC anymore.
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