In the four days since HIP-4's mainnet launch, daily volumes came in at $3.0M, $3.6M, $3.8M, and $3.6M, roughly $14M cumulative, or about $3.5M per day on average. Polymarket, over the same window, did $190M, $205M, $189M, and $175M, averaging around $190M daily. The gap between the two platforms is roughly 54x. Across the broader prediction market, where Kalshi and Polymarket together hold more than 80%, HIP-4 sits at about 0.3%.
The first market to go live on May 2 was a BTC daily binary. It settles every day at 06:00 UTC against HyperCore's BTC mark price, after which the next cycle immediately opens under a fresh outcome ID, a recurring binary outcome structure.
Outcome contracts are simple betting units priced between 0 and 1: if the outcome resolves in your favor you get $1, otherwise $0. There's no leverage and no liquidation, so a $100 bet caps your downside at $100. The same structure can power yes/no prediction markets like "Trump to win," as well as options-style products where the payoff is defined by a price range. For now only binaries, questions with two possible answers, are live. Multi-outcome markets, where the answer is one of several, are slated for later.
That said, simply adding more markets isn't really the point of HIP-4. What sets it apart is that, unlike other new protocols that have to build a market from scratch, HIP-4 plugs in as a contract category on top of an already-established Hyperliquid. Polymarket and Kalshi each run their own separate user pools and payment rails. Polymarket uses Polymarket USD (pUSD), Kalshi uses its own infrastructure, so new traders have to go through a separate funding step. HIP-4 skips that step entirely: anyone already trading on Hyperliquid can access it directly.
Four days in is too early to read a share trend. Hyperliquid itself does around $9B in daily volume, and HIP-3, built on the same builder model and launched earlier, grew to roughly 40% of Hyperliquid's total volume within seven months of mainnet. If HIP-4 follows a similar trajectory, daily volumes could plausibly scale into the multi-billion-dollar range.
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